China will take the top spot as the world’s best-selling automotive producer in 2025, outselling Japan for the first time, as analysts forecast Geely will join BYD in the top 10 best-selling global automotive brands.
A Nikkei China report says Chinese auto brands will sell 27 million new vehicles globally in 2025, overtaking Japan’s projected 25 million sales.
Despite controversial automotive import tariffs in both Europe and the United States, China’s automotive industry is set to break Japan’s decades-long stranglehold on the top spot for the first time.
Domestic Chinese sales will account for around 70 per cent of Chinese brand totals, the report said, while exports are expected to total around seven million vehicles.
The forecast accounts for sales of Chinese brands and determines the origin of vehicles sold through partnerships – such as Stellantis’ Leapmotor – based on the brand under which they are marketed.
The report uses data from automakers as well as S&P Global Mobility, includes both passenger and commercial vehicles, and points to significant sales growth for Chinese brands in Southeast Asia. Africa and Central America have also recorded increased sales.
Export growth for Chinese automakers has stemmed from an oversupply of new vehicles in China, leading to discounts and lower profitability, with exports seen as a way to counter excess supply.
In Australia, Chinese-made cars recorded 24 per cent year-on-year sales growth between January and November 30, 2025 (not including Tesla and Polestar sales, reported separately).
Despite the rise, sales of Chinese-made cars remain behind Japan and, with Tesla and Polestar included, are close to matching second-placed Thailand’s total of 230,643 vehicles over the first 11 months of the year.
In November 2025, Chinese-made cars crossed the 200,000 mark for the first time in a calendar year and surpassed the 2024 full-year total of 176,159 the previous month.
With more than 200,000 sales in 2025, Chinese-made vehicles will break their previous Australian sales record of 193,433, set in 2023.
GWM was the highest-selling Chinese brand locally to the end of November, placing seventh, ahead of BYD in eighth and MG in 10th.
The Tesla Model Y was the best-selling Chinese-made model with 28,460 sales, also making it Australia’s most popular electric vehicle.
The overall Australian new-vehicle market, which was forecast earlier this year to decline, could still set a new sales record in 2025 after the 2023 record of 1,216,780 was broken in 2024 (1,237,287).
MORE: VFACTS November 2025: Australian new car sales drop as major auto brands slump
